(opinion)
It all seems like a heist movie. Somebody sets off the fire alarm, then, when all the people are out of the building, in come the thieves, dressed as firefighters. And by the time the smoke clears, the thieves are long gone, and so are all the jewels.
In this case it is not jewels that are disappearing, but something much more precious; our freedom and autonomy as human beings, to travel, associate, work, speak according to our best judgment, our personal privacy, and to make our own decisions about keeping well; to be free adults, in other words. These are things we would never normally just give away (you wouldn’t, would you?), but for the fact that we have been caught unawares, and fear (of one thing or another) is stopping us from thinking clearly.
In this current med-panic situation, there are many possibilities for what is really going on behind the smokescreen of emergency reaction. But the one thing in all this that I am not afraid of is a virus. There is considerable evidence that the fear and alarm of the current pandemic are way out of proportion to the actual threat, have been hyped by a click-hungry media and exploited by various political and commercial interests, keen to ‘never waste a good crisis’. And it is certain that the risks to our health from over-reacting are real. The first rule of public health is surely do not spread panic and fear.
One solid correlation in public health is that poverty increases the risk of disease and decreases life expectancy. That being so, bringing the economy to its knees is a terrible mistake to make at any time.
When it comes to health and disease, there is one major bottom-line – all-cause mortality. And when we look at all-cause mortality, and don’t simply corale into a new category, cases that last year would have been typical of the season, we find at the time of writing that so far 2020 has been an unremarkable year in terms of premature deaths anywhere. We therefore don’t need 5G or bio-weapons, or even an exotic virus, to explain what is going on; all we need is careless manipulation of statistics without a sense of broader context.
In every heist movie, there are the characters. There is the jaded but honest cop, who knows in his gut that something doesn’t quite add up. And while others are looking at videotape and fingerprints, our hero is usually trying to understand the other characters in the play, to find out what makes them tick, understand their backgrounds, and to fathom their motivations and insecurities. Why does a certain charismatic player always seem to hang around the scene of the crime? Why does this person always seem a little too interested in what is going on, or perhaps overly keen to offer a helping hand to the police? Why does their name come up too often to be mere coincidence? Did they in fact have some kind of advance knowledge of what was about to happen? And most of all, in what way do they benefit from the events? Are they in fact manipulating the situation in some way?
In this real world story, there certainly are those who seem to benefit from the situation, who are only too eager to ‘help’. Think; people who were running pandemic war-games just before these events took place. Think; those pushing enthusiastically for highly technical solutions which they can control. Think; those who seem to have the ears of the powerful. Think; people who own patents on medical products or genetic material. Think; people who wish to get new draconian laws past inconvenient constitutional obstacles. Think; people with large sums of money tied up in pandemic bonds. There may be many such characters in this global story.
But, back to our cop. There are in fact many cops in this particular story. Eager for the truth, determined to solve the crime and see justice done. Millions of them, all over the world, all with time on their hands now, with fantastically powerful investigative tools right at their fingertips, and all connected directly or indirectly to each other in order to collaborate, communicate, and share their theories to thrash out this problem. And for each and every one of them this is not just about solving a puzzle, it is now deeply personal.
Still it is not exactly clear yet what has been taken or why, whether some of it will be found again or returned, or who precisely is responsible. Was it the Rembrandt or the diamonds? Or was it something of seemingly little value but priceless to one of the characters? Or something we will only miss once we need it and go looking for it later? But there are suspects.
I believe in a yin for every yang, in Karma, in an equal and opposite reaction to every action. Those who plant the wind will harvest the whirlwind.
Most heist stories don’t have many innocent victims. This one unfortunately does. But the cops are on the case. I expect twists in the plot, and nail-biting tension before this is all over. But in the end, they will get their man (or woman) and the punishment will be fitting.